Foreign Policy

A Timeline Perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022

Merve Varlı

• 20 min read

Russia's attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in violation of international law, was on the agenda of 2022. However, before these latest developments, examining the past tensions and events between the two countries will help to approach the subject more objectively. The origin of the developments between the two countries goes back centuries. Ukraine and Russia have the same origin, language, and culture. Ukraine is one of the countries that gained its independence with the collapse of Soviet Russia. The fact that Putin still sees Ukraine as an artificial Russian territory and speaks of "one people" in his current discourses shows that Ukraine has defended its belonging to Russian territory since the Soviet Union. The close connection of these two countries with each other has geographically witnessed national and regional crises many times. Russia and Ukraine are two of the most important countries in the former Soviet geography in terms of population density and economic size. Having an active role in the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, Ukraine later played a central role in the regional integration of Russia.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia wanted to establish dominance in the region and therefore wanted to limit the political, social, and economic relations of the countries around it with Western countries. However, Vladimir Putin's taking a more moderate and conciliatory role against mutual distrust and disagreement problems from the past in the first period of his Presidency and giving priority to economic and political development caused the relations between the two countries to go relatively well. It aimed to provide the transformation of the European Union to the former Soviet Republics through economic and political means, and therefore many partnership agreements were made with many other countries. Russia has made some sanctions as Ukraine has managed positive policy processes with Western countries from time to time. In the meantime, there were significant discussions between the pro-Western parties in Ukraine and those with close ties to Russia. All of these caused internal turmoil in the country and resulted in riots.

Especially in the years 2000, when Ukraine's integration with the West became prominent, relations between the two countries were tense. Ukraine's possible NATO membership was seen as a red line by Russia. These concerns of Russia can be seen in Putin's speech at the Bucharest Summit in 2008 against the possibility of Ukraine's membership in NATO. Therefore, the fact that Russia sees Ukraine as both an economic and geographical partner has caused the bilateral relations to continue with ups and downs. In addition, all relations with the West have become a Russia-West conflict.

At the system level, the deep reflections of Ukraine's geopolitical situation on domestic politics can be seen in the EuroMaidan protests in 2014. In 2013, the then President Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine signed agreements that would develop close relations with Russia, instead of the expected partnership agreement with the European Union, which echoed the protests of many university students in Kyiv's Independence Square. The protests continued for months, and protesters demanded support for pro-Western policies. After long negotiations, President Yanukovych was dismissed and left Ukraine.

Russia has imposed economic sanctions on Ukraine. One of these sanctions was over Crimea. In order not to lose Ukraine, which has historical and strategic importance to Russia, and to preserve its importance in the world order, the result of economic sanctions resulted in the annexation of Crimea in March 2014. After the referendum, after 60 years, the administration of Crimea was again under Russian control. Although some sanctions were imposed on Russia during this period, Russia responded with the same rigor by using natural gas weapons. Today, Crimea is still controlled and administered by Russia.

With the latest tensions, the war between Russia and Ukraine started with Putin's early morning speech on February 24, when they launched a military operation in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Putin's recognition of the independence of the Donbas and Luhansk regions, where Russian separatists are concentrated, on the morning of February 24, is one of the first reasons that started the war. In this direction, Russian military units entered Kyiv from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, as well as the Kharkiv, Sumi, Chernihiv, and Chernobyl regions. There were hot conflicts in the mentioned regions of Ukraine, which were besieged by military units from the ground and the air. At this point, it shows that the message given for the operations is that since Putin came to power in 2000, there is no reason for NATO to expand anymore and that he is trying to prevent NATO from joining the surrounding regions. Since 2002, Ukraine's participation in NATO has been in question, and there have been some demands on the Russian side. According to these, It is necessary to stop the expansion of NATO and to stop the distribution of weapons in the regions close to the Russian border. On the other hand, NATO has stated that it cannot restrict which countries can join the alliance and will not give up on military deployments to member countries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky underlined that he wanted a clear and realistic timeline for his country's accession to NATO.

Stating that he did not accept NATO's requests in the following process, Putin tries to prove the validity of the military operation by stating that the Minsk Agreement signed in 2014 and 2015 is not valid now and that this agreement has never been complied with. The Minsk agreement consists of two parts. The basis of the first agreement was signed with the representatives of Russia, Ukraine, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to prevent conflicts in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and although it was decided to declare a ceasefire, the agreement was broken in a short time by the violations of both sides. In the second agreement made in 2015, Ukraine said that it could grant more autonomy to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but the agreement failed, again with mutual violations, like meeting the demands of the Russian population regarding the mother tongue.

The recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the attempt to occupy the whole of Ukraine led to the establishment of a strong Western alliance against Russia. The European Union and NATO condemned this decision of Russia and US President Joe Biden announced that he would impose sanctions on Russia. The fact that the Western alliance took a determined stance this time showed the limits of Russia's influence in the fields desired by the West. In addition, the thought that Ukraine would not be able to show much resistance against Russia and would surrender before the war shows us that the decisions are mostly gathered by one person and the individual decision is at the forefront. It is understood from Ukraine that this war turned into a war of independence and the result of months of resistance. In addition to weapons, ammunition, medical supplies, and other military equipment from NATO member countries, it is seen that financial aid of millions of euros has also reached Ukraine. In the face of Ukraine's requests for aid, there is a mobilization in the provision of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The assistance of NATO and its allies is also important at this point.

The existence or non-existence of a ground that has given rise to the occupation so far also creates an important area of analysis. After Vladimir Putin's speech on the first day of the invasion, he announced that he accepted the demand for recognition as independent countries of the two regions where the Russian separatists are located. However, it is seen that ethnic Russians are not in the majority in the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions [1]. The majority of ethnic Russians in Ukraine are in Crimea. During the first Russian occupation that started in Crimea, in 1783, nearly 90 percent of the Crimean Tatar population lived. Crimean Tatars were deported to Central Asia and Siberia in 1944, under the excuse of World War II, and more Russian people than Ukrainians were settled in this region later. Even though there is not as much Russian population as in Crimea, Russian separatists living in Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been given Russian passports since 2019.

After analysing the path to war, Russia still rejects its plans to invade Ukraine. In addition, he repeatedly rejected the US warnings of a possible invasion as propaganda. The US administration issued warnings for weeks before the invasion began, and these warnings turned out to be correct. Although President Joe Biden made serious diplomatic efforts in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, he has always made it clear that America does not want to fight. He said that US citizens are more important, and he wanted to show the correctness of this importance by withdrawing military advisers and observers from Ukraine. Since Ukraine does not have a border with the USA, since Ukraine does not have any oil reserves and there is no US military base in Ukraine, there is no national interest in favor of the USA. However, it has been clearly stated that Russia's threats to peace and security principles will be responded to with economic sanctions, not with military operations. In addition, the American people do not want war, AP-NORC's recent survey shows that the US does not play a role in this war or plays a very minor role in this war, with 72 percent.

NATO member Turkey, on the other hand, is in a difficult situation in the face of the harsh reactions of other member countries against Russia. Turkey, which is in close economic and defense cooperation with Russia, follows a policy of balance between NATO and Russia. However, in a possible hot conflict between NATO and Russia, it has been stated with certainty that Turkey will side with NATO. Turkey, which acted as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine in diplomacy forums such as the Antalya Summit held afterward, gathered the parties at the same table and waited for a ceasefire, but the desired result could not be achieved.
On the Russian side, it is observed that society is in a much more complex situation based on the news reflected in the press. Many opposing views are reflected in the media as those who oppose and protest the occupation of Ukraine, those who approve of the occupation of Ukraine, and those who support Putin and the neutral community. Three-way tensions are escalating between those who support Putin, those who think that the US is threatening Russia's sovereignty by using Ukraine, and those who are against the occupation. In some cities, people organized anti-war protests and took to the streets with slogans such as "No to war" and "Not my war". During these protests, many people were arrested and detained.

In the first days of the war, against the allegations that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky escaped from Kyiv, Zelenskiy broadcast a video in front of the Presidential building, stating that he was defending his independence and state and that he would not flee anywhere. For Zelenskiy, who is known for playing a role in a comedy series, not as the head of state in Ukraine, such allegations may be due to his lack of previous experience in state administration. As a supportive attitude, the Ukrainian people found their own story when he expressed his anger against corruption in the TV series he played. Now, it is the focal point of the greatest tension between the West and Russia, and we are here as the person fighting for the interests of Ukraine on the one hand, and trying not to panic its people, on the other.

By the second month of the war, Russian soldiers had withdrawn from the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, and Ukrainian soldiers regained control there. However, after dozens of war tragedies and bombs exploded in Kyiv, the process of returning to normal life in the shadow of war will not be easy. It seems that Russia is less likely to attack Kyiv again in the future and has directed its targets to the east of Ukraine, mostly to Donbas. In addition, the humanitarian corridor initiatives that he started to be opened in Mariupol, Russia, were also unsuccessful. In the humanitarian corridors that have been opened now, civilians have been fired upon and many violations of humanitarian law have occurred. Against humanitarian law violations by the United Nations, Russia was expelled from the Geneva-based Human Rights Council.

At the beginning of the war, Russia's political rhetoric and the de-Nazification of Ukraine, and the disarmament of Ukraine were shown as priority objectives. When it comes to the second month of the war, according to the official statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, these two goals have been achieved and it has been announced that efforts will be made to make the Donbas region a safe area from this date on. Focusing on Luhansk and Donbas regions is likely to become a winnable success motive for Russian soldiers at this point. The smaller the scale, the higher the probability of winning.

According to the peace talks held in Istanbul, it can be said that there was a regression in the negotiations, which left their second month behind. Although Putin and Zelenskiy were expected to meet in the peace negotiations mediated by Turkey, this did not materialize, and it was seen that a phase in which conflicts increased. In his speech to the Ukrainian people on the 55th day of the war, Zelenskiy stated that it is a great thing to be able to stand up and fight against one of the largest armies in the world for such a long time and revealed his rightful victory. He stated that if they had received the weapon aid at the very beginning of the war, the outcome would have been much different, and complained that the aid was delayed. On the other hand, it is a different discussion topic whether there will be a big change in the outcome with earlier aid. Therefore, no matter how much support the aid provided provides since war cannot last forever and there will be an end to the aid provided, it is foreseen that the negotiations to be held in the future will be negotiations that will force the parties to peace more oppressively. In this regard, the statement made by Germany can be given as an example at this point that there will be limited aid such as economic aid to Ukraine, except for heavy ammunition such as weapons, but limited aid will be given at this point.
Censorship and news restrictions continued in Russia, as they had from the first days of the war. Therefore, it is more difficult for the Russian people to follow what is happening with all its realities. Although the protests against Putin continue, it is said that those who listen to the Russian media for a long time are more likely to be on the Russian side. According to the news in the Russian media, Kyiv is considered as the party that does not want to participate in the negotiations and is not in favor of peace, and an attempt is made to create a bad image in the eyes of the people. On the Ukrainian side, it has now been seen that there is a definite withdrawal from the ideas of a common history, culture, and solidarity in Russia. This situation started with the annexation of Crimea in 2013 and it was observed that the rate of speaking Ukrainian in Ukraine increased so much after the annexation of Crimea. Nowadays, this has come to the point that Russian speakers are viewed with a different eye. This is an indication that the politics of Ukrainian society will undergo a major change.

In terms of economic sanctions, it can be said that Russia has been struggling with economic sanctions since 2014. However, Russia has become a country accustomed to this situation. Sanctions from Europe were mostly those that were large enough to affect domestic politics and were not large enough to lead to regime change. The ruble, which had lost a lot of value at the beginning of the war, was brought back to its pre-war power with a few tactical decisions taken in the second month of the war. Although these sanctions did not wear out the Russian economy, they left the Russian people quite alone. It is obvious that the Russian people are great exclusion due to the war, and it is unclear how this will turn out during the war. In the face of this situation, there is a possibility that hatred towards Putin may grow among some groups and become a threat to Putin.
It was also seen in the third month of the war that Russian military units were more active in eastern Ukraine. In the face of the siege of Kharkiv and Mariupol, the Ukrainian army showed a very strong resistance in these cities. Trying to seize strategic cities since the first months of the war, the Russians also captured Mariupol, the port city, and took it under control. Ukrainian soldiers who defended their country in the face of this invasion also suffered great losses and Mariupol was in ruins. Apart from Kharkiv and Mariupol, the city of Kherson was one of the seized regions and it was announced that the Russian ruble would be used in this region until the end of the year. The dimension of the war seems to be aimed not only to seize the cities but also to assimilate the regions they have captured as soon as possible. The aim of liberating Donbas, one of the special aims of the operation, continued in the third month of the war, but according to the Pentagon's statements, Russia cannot progress in the Donbas operation with the desired success, and they are behind the schedule they planned.
On the Ukrainian side, attacks on Russian lands from the regions where the Russians had withdrawn have started to be carried out recently. Although these attacks are likely to experience some developments that will change the fate of Ukraine in the war with the destruction of strategic regions, they may also cause military weakness in conflict zones with the division of Ukrainian military power into more areas. However, it is observed that the Ukrainian soldiers have been in strict training since the annexation of Crimea and are almost prepared for today. On the other hand, military support from the West became more evident at this stage of the war. Volodymyr Zelensky's strong defense of his country since the third month of the war also caused him to become a leader who created the Ukrainian identity. Because until this time, other politicians thought that Zelensky would leave the city already so that someone closer to Russia could bring him to power, but in the third month of the war, these wishes were still not realized. It can be said that Ukraine gained morale in this period and there were internal discussions and demoralization on the Russian side.

Compared to the previous period, there was a period when optimism about the negotiations disappeared. It has come to an unpredictable point that the war will be prolonged and whether the parties will be able to reach peace around the table. In addition, the fact that a country with military superiority, such as Russia, could not achieve the desired success in the border country right next to it, caused the media's interest in the subject to decrease and the societies began to show fatigue. However, as the war dragged on, it came to a point where, contrary to popular belief, the size of the war increased, and Russia made more and more angry attacks.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, between February 24 and May 22, 6 million 550 thousand people crossed from Ukraine to neighbouring countries, more than half of them to Poland. According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 4,000 civilian deaths have been reported since February 24. In this war, in which many violations of humanitarian law took place, millions of people were displaced and had to continue their lives under difficult conditions.

As the third month of the war was left behind, the sounds of bombs began to be felt more intensely in the Donbas region in the east of Ukraine. Moscow tried to capture the two provinces of the region, Donetsk, and Luhansk, and to trap the Ukrainian forces in one area on the main eastern front. It has been observed that many people from the cities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are tried to be deported in the presence of the police. However, it is also written that despite the air strikes in some places, the markets are crowded, children ride bicycles, and it is treated as if normal life continues. Although the statements of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu indicate that they act slowly to minimize the loss of civilians, or that the conflicts will prolong, it is a mystery how much attention is given to civilians by Russia after so many human rights crimes committed in the region. It is said that the region will still fight as much as necessary to rid the country of "Nazism". It is equally interesting that this method was still used as an excuse for the war in the fourth month of the war. On the other hand, President of Ukraine Zelenskiy states that they need to expand their reach to the whole world in the face of these heavy attacks and the importance of calls for help in this regard. This situation, which the Biden administration also welcomes, has been approved by the United States for 100 million in aid to Ukraine. However, behind every aid given, America and other countries need to scrutinize. Because although the statements made by the Americans prioritize aid to Ukraine, it is a fact that it is not desired to confront Russia.

Zelensky argued that with the increase in conflicts in the city of Severedonetsk, it was the city that would determine the fate of the country and that his soldiers inflicted heavy losses on the enemy forces. However, according to the talks held in the region, it is said that the Ukrainian army has been moved to the outskirts of the city. There is also an intense Russian bombardment in the Lysychansk region, and because of these bombardments, these two cities have turned into dead cities. Although it is stated in the statements of the Russian Foreign Minister that the lives of civilians are given importance, it is stated that marketplaces and schools are targeted as shooting targets in these regions. On the other hand, in the statement of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Gurretes, there is a warning that as a result of the invasion of Russia, 1 billion 600 million people were affected, and the dimensions of the war are gradually increasing. Another view put forward is that millions of tons of grain are kept in Ukrainian ports and warehouses due to the war, and therefore, in case of a food crisis, this may last for years. After the meeting of Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Ankara on 7 June 2022, it was discussed that a grain corridor could be created between Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey in the face of the United Nations' proposal as a solution to this grain problem. It has been discussed that the region will be viable in this location. However, what Sergey Lavrov pointed out was rather that Ukraine's grain capacity is not very large and that this will not have such a big impact as to cause famine.
Since the beginning of the war, its effects on the global environment have been enormous. The possibility that this war, which was seen in Europe in the post-World War II period, spread to other countries, created security problems, especially in non-NATO countries. Based on Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which stipulates that the member states of the organization should assist any country in the event of an armed attack, first Finland and then its neighbour Sweden followed it and wanted to benefit from this security umbrella. In the face of the two countries' applications for membership in NATO, leaving the neutrality policy, Turkey's objection led to a great debate. Turkey objected to the participation of the two countries in NATO, claiming that they supported the PKK and YPG. However, in the past, Turkey always approached NATO's open-door policy positively. In the 2000s, it supported the joining of the former Soviet bloc countries in the alliance. In the face of this situation, which is on the terrorist organization lists of the United States, European Union, and England, but the opposite for Sweden and Finland, Turkey objected by using its resources. In the speeches of NATO Secretary-General Joe Stoltenberg, it was stated that Turkey's concerns should be addressed. After the Peace Branch Operation was carried out in 2019 targeting the YPG in northern Syria, both countries imposed an arms embargo on Turkey. At this point, Ankara has legitimate complaints about Sweden's attitude. Turkey is now able to impose this on Sweden as a condition. Although the President of Turkey stated in his speeches that they would continue to reject it in a definite way, it is understood that the door was not closed completely in the speeches of his chief adviser, and negotiations would be easier when Turkey's security requirements are met. Because with the expansion of the alliance, the development of the defense mechanism and agreeing with the allies will be in the interests of everyone. In turn, whether NATO's enlargement is necessary or not is a subject that needs to be addressed as a completely different matter. For the solution to the problem, Turkey's request is for Sweden to stop supporting these terrorist organizations. At this point, it has been announced that the Stockholm and Helsinki administrations will present packages to Ankara.
Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia worldwide after the last 100 days, Russia continues to obtain quite large amounts of its exports such as oil and natural gas. According to the Energy and Clean Air Research Center (CREA), Russia earned 93 billion euros from fossil fuel sales in the first 100 days of the war. In the speeches of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, it was emphasized that there were no major losses in the framework of the prices created as a result of the sanctions policies of the West and that the income obtained from the export of energy resources.

Conclusion

With the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, the biggest crisis of recent times was experienced. Every day, heart-breaking scenes are brought to the world. There have been many exemplary events such as the corpses in the streets of Bucha, and a theater blown up in Mariupol. Therefore, what happened can be considered the worst armed conflict that Europe has seen in recent years. At this point, there is no sign that the war will end soon, but the destruction, destruction, death, and economic damage caused by the war continue to increase day by day. Although the state of the war has been tried to be conveyed with the data to date, there are many more injured or civilian deaths than the data disclosed. The reason for this is that it is not always possible for people such as the United Nations, and government officials, who are tasked with counting the loss of life, to reach the places where the missing are. War crimes and human rights violations on the Russian side during the past 4 months have always been one of the issues on the agenda. We know that this situation will, unfortunately, continue until the end of the war, such as the fact that the people who died in Mariupol were buried in mass graves to show the number of people who died. The most pathetic point of this situation is that we humans get used to such news and events, no matter how big it is. The fact that the number of dead is just a number, and the loss of interest, also destroys the existence of the pain experienced there. However, this is not just small news.

Many cities and towns were destroyed, and many parts of Ukraine were devastated by incessant bombardments, and land and air attacks. However, we see that the 100th day of this war, which Russia entered with great self-confidence, is over, and contrary to popular belief, this war, which was not easy for Russia, is expected to last even longer. Contrary to the unexpected, the interlocking of the West was one of the unexpected events of the war. In this direction, Russia's desire to turn its targets to the east and to cut off Ukraine's connection with the Black Sea has emerged. However, in the latter stages of the war, plans may change again, and Russia may gather power again and try to take Kyiv by turning to Kyiv. Because Russia, which could not get what it wanted at first, has reached this point by prolonging the war, and especially the serious attacks in the last weeks show us this. On the other hand, after the West realized the slow progress of Russia in the face of the extraordinary resistance power of Ukraine, the support and supply of weapons to Ukraine will increase in the coming period.

The group most affected by the war is the people. At this point, one of the most difficult questions is how the people will be reintegrated after what happened in both Russia and Ukraine. With the emergence of two views on the Russian side, those who are against the course of the war and those who strongly support Putin, it is even possible to come to a point that will knock Putin out of his seat. Therefore, it is impossible to predict where the war will go and how it will end. Although there are many opinions about when the war will end or how it will end, this is the period when the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are the most broken. This is one of the most important points because a period when communication with both Ukraine and the West is broken is the most vulnerable to danger. It is not easy to witness such a war in the 21st century, which concerns all humanity, and the results of this war will not be easy.

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